Geopolitical events continue to escalate, container shipping index hits limit up again

金十期货 March 4 News: In the morning session, the main contract of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) hit the daily limit, rising by 20% to 1909.5 points. According to a research report by Yide Futures, in the short term, geopolitical risks remain the core variable affecting the futures market of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line). Currently, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is highly tense, and the confrontation between the US-Israel alliance and Iran is unlikely to ease quickly. If the conflict continues to escalate, the risk of supply chain disruption will further expand, and the market may continue to surge. In the medium to long term, we believe the probability of the geopolitical situation shifting from "dramatic escalation" to "stalemate and game" is increasing, and the market needs to wait for the premium to gradually fade before trading based on fundamental logic again. At present, the loose supply-demand pattern on the European route has not changed, making it difficult to support a sustained rise in freight rates. There is a divergence between spot and futures trends, and the main April contract has a demand for basis convergence.