Brief conflicts or restrictions may limit the US Dollar Index; Strait blockade remains the biggest variable

Golden Ten Data reported on March 6 that Ebury strategist Matthew Ryan stated in a report that if the Middle East conflict is relatively short-lived, the recent upward momentum of the US dollar may have limited further room to grow. He pointed out that the market is currently pricing in a conflict lasting about a month, based on signals released by Trump. In this scenario, the dollar's gains should be restrained, and a pullback is likely to occur once the conflict ends. However, broader regional involvement and a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz "constitute clear risks." He believes this would lead to a further surge in oil prices, thereby boosting the dollar and hitting risk-sensitive currencies.