Bloomberg strategist: Crypto market downturn may be the start of a "deflationary domino," Iran situation could trigger a US recession

According to Odaily, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone posted on X, stating that the market is currently discussing whether the situation in Iran could become the trigger for the next round of economic recession in the United States. Currently, U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, while the 180-day volatility of the Nasdaq 100 Index is near its lowest point since 2018. If volatility rises significantly in the future, it may validate his view of a market turning point. The current decline in crypto assets may only be the beginning of the "post-inflation era deflationary domino effect." The previous surge in the crypto market was excessive, and with increased supply, the price pullback is, to some extent, a correction of the over-advance.

Regarding oil, recent sharp increases in oil prices often squeeze out short positions, stimulate increased supply, and may trigger global economic recession risks. The high volatility in precious metals and energy markets may gradually transmit to the stock market. He predicts that after bitcoin in 2024 and gold in 2025, U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) may become the main excess return asset in 2026. However, if in the future bitcoin stabilizes above $74,000, copper rises to $6, silver reaches $100, the S&P 500 hits 7,000 points, the Dow Jones rises to 50,000 points, and U.S. Treasury yields exceed 5%, then his current judgment may be disproven.