Risk aversion puts pressure on nickel prices, continuing to fall below $17,200 per ton in March

(1) In March, nickel futures prices fell below $17,200 per ton, continuing their downward trend. As tensions in the Middle East escalated, risk aversion sentiment spread in the manufacturing market, leading to a general decline in other industrial metals as well. (2) The surge in Brent crude oil and the strengthening of the US dollar have increased the pressure on industrial products, prompting investors to reduce their exposure to cyclical metals. (3) On the supply side, Indonesian refineries, which rely on Middle Eastern sulfur for about 75% of their demand, may face rising costs and potential production cuts if shipping disruptions persist, tightening raw material supply and impacting operations. (4) In addition, Indonesia's ore quota for 2026 is set at 260 million to 270 million wet tons, which limits the full release of the country's 2.7 million tons of RKEF and HPAL capacity. It is expected that this year's processing utilization rate will drop to 70%-75%.