JPMorgan warns that US stocks may fall by 10% due to Middle East conflict; market is not yet prepared

Golden Ten Data reported on March 9 that JPMorgan's trading division stated that the Iran war could trigger a drop of up to 10% in the S&P 500 Index from its peak, and that U.S. stock market traders are not yet prepared for this. Andrew Tyler, Head of Global Market Intelligence at JPMorgan, said on Monday that due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and oil prices breaking above $100 per barrel, he has turned "tactically bearish" on U.S. stocks. If a correction occurs, this would mean the S&P 500 Index would fall 10% from its high to around 6,270 points, about 7% lower than last Friday's closing level. Tyler noted that investors' current positions are not prepared for a downturn: "Current positioning is overall neutral, lacking extreme de-risking operations." As traders "expect the situation to ease," energy stocks saw net selling last week. However, after several Gulf countries cut production, oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, raising market concerns about long-term supply shocks and stagflation risks. Tyler believes that if the conflict does not persist, these risks may quickly dissipate. "Once there is a clear path to de-escalation, this tactical view will end, as the underlying macro fundamentals still support risk assets."