Goldman Sachs and Barclays issue simultaneous warnings: Persistently high oil prices could push US inflation to 3%

According to Jinse Finance, citing comprehensive foreign media reports, both Goldman Sachs and Barclays have warned that the continued rise in oil prices could push up overall inflation. Goldman Sachs estimates that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices could raise the CPI by about 0.28 percentage points. In one scenario, if oil prices rise by about $10 and remain high for three months, the U.S. inflation rate could increase from 2.4% to about 3%. Barclays believes that oil prices approaching $100 per barrel will drive up overall inflation, mainly through gasoline prices. Based on its baseline outlook, it is expected that the year-on-year overall inflation rate in the U.S. will be about 2.7%, with core inflation at about 2.8%, assuming oil prices do not remain high for a long period. If oil prices continue to hover near $100 per barrel, inflation could be pushed towards 3%, and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may be delayed. (Golden Ten Data)