"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Brent Oil is Still in the First Stage, "Whether the Strait of Hormuz is Open" is the Key Variable

According to Odaily, "1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett posted on X, stating that the current Brent crude oil trend is still in its first phase, and multiple narratives in the market have yet to bring about any substantive changes. For example, the G7's statement that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is "ready to be released at any time" is more of a gesture than a real solution, and expectations regarding a ceasefire also remain at the narrative level. There is a lot of noise in the market right now, but the truly critical issue is only one: whether the Strait of Hormuz is open. The answer is still negative at present. If this key shipping chokepoint continues to be restricted, the duration of this restriction will become the core variable affecting energy market trading.