Oil prices experience roller-coaster movements, while the US Treasury yield curve steepens slightly

⑴ On Tuesday, crude oil prices experienced significant volatility, hitting an intraday low of $84.43 per barrel before rebounding rapidly due to news of a drone attack. Institutions predict that, unless there is new information from the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will continue to fluctuate widely within the $80 to $100 range. ⑵ In the US Treasury market, the yield curve steepened slightly. As of press time, the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields was 56.5 basis points, while the spread between 5-year and 30-year yields was 105.2 basis points. ⑶ Yields across different maturities showed mixed movements, with the 2-year Treasury yield last at 3.546%, the 5-year at 3.692%, the 10-year at 4.111%, and the 30-year long bond yield rebounding to 4.747%. ⑷ Trading data shows that the Treasury futures market was active, with the TYM6 contract reaching a trading volume of 480,000 lots, about twice the daily average. In the options market, there were several spread combination trades involving 2-year maturities. ⑸ Overnight news was mixed, with reports that advisors are urging for a path to exit the conflict, but also emphasizing that Iran's position remains opposed. Institutional views suggest that although the US is a net oil exporter and productivity has improved, persistent inflation remains a greater risk to the economy.