an exchange Report: Bitcoin Price Currently Driven by Spot Demand, Laying Groundwork for High Certainty Mean Reversion Rally

BlockBeats News, March 10, an exchange released a report stating that "despite the geopolitical escalation following the 'Black Saturday' in Iran two weeks ago, and the disappointing US non-farm payroll data with only 92,000 new jobs added, the $60,000–$64,000 Bitcoin support range unexpectedly showed resilience. Since then, international oil prices have risen sharply, which may impact future Consumer Price Index (CPI) as energy accounts for about 9% of the final CPI calculation. This inflationary pressure implies that all risk assets may face resistance."

However, for Bitcoin, there are currently two forces at play. The first force is Bitcoin's more frequent and rapid volatility compared to other risk assets. As its correlation with high-risk tech sectors increases and its correlation with safe-haven assets like gold decreases, Bitcoin often exhibits more exaggerated downward swings before other risk assets, yet it also tends to bottom out earlier. Given Bitcoin's underperformance compared to the S&P 500 or Nasdaq over the past two quarters, this dynamic may be at play.

The current market condition can be described as a "deleveraging wave." Retail investor sentiment remains highly cautious, with Bitcoin experiencing a 52% peak-to-trough drawdown since its October 2025 high, nearly deflating most of the speculative bubble in the market. This can be confirmed by the Leverage Reset Index, which is the ratio of total open interest (OI) to exchange spot reserves and has currently dropped to a multi-year low of 0.32. This indicates that the current price discovery is mainly driven by spot demand rather than leveraged derivatives, laying the foundation for a high certainty mean-reversion trend after macro volatility contraction.