OPEC monthly report maintains supply and demand forecasts, does not explicitly mention Gulf supply disruptions

⑴ Despite significant supply disruptions and sharp oil price fluctuations in the Middle East Gulf region since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28, OPEC has maintained its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts unchanged. ⑵ In its latest monthly oil market report released today, OPEC did not explicitly mention the war, but stated that geopolitical developments "deserve close attention," and their impact on economic growth "if any," is currently too early to assess. ⑶ Although OPEC does not make predictions about its member countries' oil production, major OPEC+ oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have begun shutting down some crude oil production due to limited storage capacity and insufficient alternative export channels. ⑷ OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 106.53 million barrels per day; and to increase by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027, reaching 107.87 million barrels per day. ⑸ It is expected that non-OPEC countries' supply will increase by 630,000 barrels per day in 2026, reaching 54.83 million barrels per day; and increase by 610,000 barrels per day in 2027, reaching 55.44 million barrels per day.