JPMorgan upgrades Hochschild Mining stock rating on growth outlook

Investing.com - JPMorgan upgraded Hochschild Mining Plc. (LON:HOC) from Neutral to Overweight and raised its price target to GBP9.90 from GBP8.90. The upgrade comes as the stock has delivered exceptional returns, surging nearly 199% over the past year and 100% in the last six months, according to data.

The firm said Hochschild reported in-line fiscal year 2025 results versus JPMorgan estimates and consensus. The company’s 2026 guidance for production, operating expenses and capital expenditures remains unchanged since the fourth quarter of 2025.

JPMorgan forecasts 2026 and 2027 EBITDA of $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion, representing growth of more than 100% versus 2025, supported by the higher gold and silver price environment. The firm adjusted its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates by negative 2% for both years after incorporating fiscal year 2025 results and management’s indicative capital expenditure for two growth projects. The company currently trades at a P/E ratio of 30.5 with a market cap of $4.48 billion, and InvestingPro assigns the company a "Great" Financial Health score of 3.34 out of 5.

Hochschild’s two unapproved growth projects are advancing, with Monte Do Carmo expected to reach a final investment decision in mid-2026. The project is a key driver of approximately 50% volume growth by 2030 to around 450,000 ounces of gold equivalent.

JPMorgan raised its target multiple from 4.0 times 2026 estimated enterprise value to EBITDA to 5.0 times. The firm said Hochschild trades on 2026 and 2027 spot enterprise value to EBITDA of 4.2 times and 3.7 times and a 4% free cash flow yield, with the share price down 20% month-to-date.