A new account has invested $20,000, betting that the US military will not enter Iran by the end of March.

According to PolyBeats tracking, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has put in $20,000 to buy the "No" option for "US Military to enter Iran before March 31st." The average entry price for this bet is 75¢, and the current probability for this option is 75%.

On one hand, Trump has repeatedly emphasized that the war is about to end soon, describing the current joint airstrikes as a "significant military development" and a "strategic victory," attempting to cool down the situation to avoid a prolonged ground war in the Middle East, which could further spiral international oil prices out of control and exacerbate domestic inflationary pressures in the United States. On the other hand, he has also issued escalation threats, such as promising a "20-fold intensity" retaliation if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz.

Nevertheless, the Trump administration is trying to characterize the previous joint airstrikes as a "tactical success" and is seeking a gradual disengagement. However, they have not firmly rejected the option of deploying US troops into Iranian territory but are considering limited special forces operations to address remaining threats.

However, Washington is facing significant pressure from Israel. Following the earlier airstrikes that dealt a severe blow to the top echelons of the Iranian regime, Israeli hardliners believe that the current situation presents a unique historical opportunity to completely eradicate the Iranian nuclear threat. Due to deeply buried high-level nuclear facilities that are difficult to incapacitate with existing bunker-busting munitions alone, Israel is continuously lobbying and even pressuring the White House, hoping that US special forces can carry out swift ground infiltration or physical destruction missions to completely eliminate the remaining enriched uranium stockpiles and nuclear materials.

Account:
0x94a88422bca9af3db3045ddbe5f8f6d3be185204

Total Stake: $20k
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