A new account bets $90,000 that the Iranian regime will collapse before June 30

According to monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $90,000 in the bet "Will the Iranian regime collapse before ___", choosing "Yes", with two deadlines: 4.30 and 6.30. Currently, the price for collapse before 6.30 is 23.5¢.

Analysis suggests that after losing its core strongman, Iran faces real risks of fragmentation and severe factional infighting among hardliners, pragmatists (such as President Pezeshkian's reformist supporters), and various security and military institutions.

For example, after President Pezeshkian's speeches, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or other institutions often issue follow-up statements to refute or supplement the president's remarks: On March 7, 2026, Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf neighbors in a televised address and promised to stop attacks (unless they originate from those countries), but hours later, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement warning that if hostile actions continue, they will launch "overwhelming strikes" against US and Israeli bases in the region. Subsequently, Pezeshkian's office released a clarification statement, omitting the original apology, further highlighting the tension between the president and the hardline military.

Yesterday, the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei did not choose to appear publicly or conduct a video broadcast in his first important statement, but instead had the national television read out a written text. This unusual move has led public opinion to suspect issues with his health, personal safety threats, or that he has not yet fully controlled the internal power structure.

Account:
0xa2536f292681daff7a048ab51fab6bdf81ecc48f

Total position: $90k
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