Analysis: Bitcoin May Restart Its Surge Toward $100,000 as Macro Indicators Flash Bullish Signals Again

Odaily reported that a macro model combining the US 10-year Treasury yield and the China 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y×CN10Y) has recently shown an "extremely precise" bullish crossover signal, which may provide guidance for the next bitcoin rally. Historical data shows that this indicator issued similar signals before the bull markets in 2013, 2017, 2020–2021, and 2023, with corresponding bitcoin gains of approximately 8700%, 1900%, 600%, and over 350%, respectively. In addition, on-chain data reveals that whale addresses (wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) have re-entered an accumulation phase during the recent price correction, mirroring behavior patterns seen near previous market bottoms. Analysts believe that if bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds near the 200-week moving average, its price may test $100,000 around August. However, if it fails to break through the key resistance level at $78,000, there remains a risk of forming a "bull trap."