Hormuz Instability Threatens to Drive Up Food Prices

Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Agricultural Impact Looms

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly shifting from being primarily an energy concern to presenting a significant, underestimated risk to global agriculture. Nearly one-third of the world’s seaborne urea and close to 45% of internationally traded sulphur depend on export routes through the Gulf. This disruption is occurring just as the U.S. spring planting season approaches its critical mid-April deadline—a period when applying nitrogen fertilizer cannot be postponed.

If the flow of goods through the Gulf remains restricted into April, farmers may be forced to reduce fertilizer use, leading to diminished crop yields and tighter grain stocks by the third and fourth quarters of 2026. This scenario could trigger a renewed wave of food price inflation, typically with a delay of three to six months. While markets continue to concentrate on oil, attention is likely to shift toward these emerging agricultural risks.