Middle East conflict disrupts global supply; Vietnam's future oil production may decline

Golden Ten Data reported on March 18 that a government document released in Vietnam this week indicates that, as offshore oil fields age and geopolitical tensions threaten global supply, Vietnam's domestic crude oil production is expected to decline in the coming years, further increasing the country's dependence on imported crude oil. This latest forecast regarding declining oil production comes as Vietnam faces the risk of oil shortages triggered by the US-Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent export bans by energy suppliers. According to data released by Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade, during the period from 2026 to 2030, the country's crude oil production is expected to drop to 5.8 to 8 million tons per year, below the average annual output of 8.6 million tons over the past five years. Data from Vietnam Customs shows that last year, the country's crude oil imports increased by 5.3% to 14.2 million tons. About 80% of the crude oil imported by Vietnam last year came from Kuwait. Vietnam also imports refined oil products, and its two refineries can meet about 70% of the country's demand, mainly using imported crude oil to produce gasoline, diesel, and other fuels. Since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, gasoline prices in Vietnam have risen by about 30%, diesel prices by about 40%, and the risk of supply shortages has prompted the government to encourage people to work from home to reduce fuel consumption.