Dallas Fed: The duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure determines the extent of GDP impact

金十数据3月21日讯， 美国达拉斯联储表示，① 如果霍尔木兹海峡在关闭一个季度后重新开放，2026年第三季度的油价将跌至每桶68美元，经济增长将提高2.2个百分点。② 当石油供应短缺持续超过一个季度时，会出现更复杂的情况。将关闭时间延长至两个季度，会导致2026年第三季度油价进一步上涨至每桶115美元，随后在2026年第四季度回落至每桶76美元。对实际GDP增长的影响直到2026年第四季度才会转为正值。③ 如果航运在三个季度后恢复，油价在下跌前将进一步飙升，到年底高达每桶132美元。对增长的影响在整个2026年底前将始终保持负值。Golden Ten Data reported on March 21 that the Dallas Federal Reserve stated: ① If the Strait of Hormuz reopens after being closed for one quarter, oil prices in the third quarter of 2026 will drop to $68 per barrel, and economic growth will increase by 2.2 percentage points. ② When the oil supply shortage lasts for more than one quarter, the situation becomes more complex. Extending the closure to two quarters will push oil prices up further to $115 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, then fall back to $76 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. The impact on real GDP growth will not turn positive until the fourth quarter of 2026. ③ If shipping resumes after three quarters, oil prices will surge further before falling, reaching as high as $132 per barrel by the end of the year. The impact on growth will remain negative throughout the end of 2026.