CITIC Securities: The medium- and long-term logic of gold remains intact

金十数据 March 23 news, CITIC Securities Research Report stated that since August 2025, gold long trades have become crowded, with the market almost overwhelmingly bullish on gold. Previously, CITIC Securities had given its outlook on gold prices: bullish in the short term, and even predicted that gold would reach a sentiment peak in the first quarter of 2026. Bearish in the medium-short term, the logic being that the rise of black commodities will inevitably follow the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, and gold's liquidity pricing will be impaired. Bullish in the medium-long term, the reason being the weakening status of the US dollar, with particular attention to the weakening technological support among the three pillars of the dollar. Bullish in the long term, the logic is that as the smoke of great power rivalry gradually settles, the international status of the RMB will significantly rise, which represents a systemic repricing opportunity for gold. Looking back at gold price trends now, the rise of crude oil was brought forward due to the US-Iran war, rather than the impossible trinity within the US model, and ultimately fiscal policy drove oil prices back to equilibrium. Aside from this, gold price trends have not deviated from our framework.