US: Flash PMI indicates slower production expansion and significant price increases after conflict erupts in the Middle East
US Economic Activity Slows Amid Global Tensions
In March, growth across American businesses eased to its lowest point in nearly a year, as companies experienced a modest slowdown in new orders and a surge in costs after conflict erupted in the Middle East. The service industry bore the brunt of this deceleration, while manufacturers saw improvements in both production and incoming orders.
Expectations for future performance also varied: service providers grew more cautious, whereas manufacturers remained relatively optimistic, partly due to reduced concerns over tariffs. Despite this, overall confidence in the private sector weakened, leading to the first recorded decline in recent months.
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1. The sharp escalation in Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude to multi-year highs of $105–$107 per barrel, reviving inflation expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.94%, its highest level since 2023, while the implied probability of a rate hike at the September 16 policy meeting to the 3.75%–4.00% range rose from 48.4% one month ago to 67.1%. 2. Rising oil prices and rate-hike expectations weighed on most risk assets, but historical data suggest that this is more likely to be a short-term adjustment than a reversal of the broader trend. Bitcoin fell 3.36% this week and the S&P 500 declined 1.64%, while gold slipped just 0.96%. Outside the energy sector, markets are largely repricing ahead of next week's expected rate decision. 3. PoolX has recently introduced a long-term holding bonus, significantly improving effective returns for users who maintain assets on the platform over time. The core participation rules remain unchanged; the update adds an additional boost to the effective locked amount for users with qualifying long-term holdings. In the example provided, a user locking 1000 ETH would see the estimated reward increase from 1666.67 USDT to 2500 USDT, or about 50%, while the reference APR rises from 4.93% to 7.40%. Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, Brent crude, WTI crude, gold, 10-year U.S. Treasuries, RAY, ZEC, LEN, CCL.
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