USD/THB: Energy-led risk off favours Dollar – MUFG

MUFG's Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights the Thai Baht (THB) as one of the more vulnerable Asian currencies under sustained high energy prices. He cites rising fuel costs, limited fiscal space, weak domestic demand and a tourism-heavy model, alongside a central bank tolerant of weakness, arguing USD/THB remains an efficient expression of energy-driven risk-off themes despite occasional ceasefire-driven rallies.

Baht seen vulnerable under energy shock

"Thailand [Baht] stands out as one of the more vulnerable currencies in this environment."

"Rising fuel costs, limited fiscal space, weak domestic demand, and a tourism-heavy growth model leave the economy exposed to an energy-driven risk off shock."

"Importantly, the policy reaction function is not baht supportive: the Bank of Thailand appears willing to tolerate a weaker currency."

"With front-end funding costs still cheap, USD/THB remains an efficient expression of energy led risk off themes."

"While ceasefire headlines can still trigger short covering rallies, these are likely to be tactical."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)