Fighter jet crashes, world prepares for chaos on Monday

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

What we need to focus on now is not the news, but on whether things are “getting out of control.”

As soon as the global market entered the weekend, the conflict escalated—from “probing” to “on the brink of losing control,” and it has already started to directly impact the global energy system.

- Iran shot down a U.S. F-15E fighter jet, and another A-10 attack jet crashed. The losses in actual combat shattered the psychological myth of the U.S. military’s invincibility in the Middle East, and this will greatly encourage Iran and its proxies to adopt more radical “asymmetric attacks.”

- Simultaneous strikes on Kuwait refineries, UAE natural gas facilities, and desalination plants. The objective of the war has completely shifted from “military confrontation” to “energy strangulation.”

This is no longer a “marginal conflict,” but a direct assault on energy infrastructure and U.S. military assets—this is a watershed event.

First, the whole world is preparing for uncontrolled oil prices. Oil has already surged above $110; if there is no news of de-escalation, then next week’s opening could see a complete repricing in global markets.

Second, next Monday (April 6th) is Trump’s so-called “final deadline,” and it’s unclear whether it still holds. Trump has been trying to use “maximum pressure” to push for negotiations, and his repeated claims that talks are “going well” are really just giving himself a way out, but Iran’s current strategy is to “fight to negotiate,” or even to refuse negotiations altogether. If Trump does not take action on April 6th, his deterrent power will completely collapse; if he launches a large-scale airstrike on Iran’s domestic energy facilities, oil prices will instantly skyrocket—making it a very long day (UTC+8).

Third, the market is entering a “non-linear phase,” not gradual rises or falls, but sudden gaps, violent fluctuations, and declining liquidity. Many markets are highly likely to see huge gap openings, which will cause numerous leveraged accounts to be liquidated instantly without any chance to set stop-losses.

Next week’s market open will not be “normal volatility” because a massive amount of information has accumulated over the weekend (it has reached a critical point), and it’s a long weekend. The market is now like a dark room filled with gunpowder, and everything that has happened during the weekend has already lit the fuse.