Garrett Jin: The market has not yet priced in the persistence of a US-Iran war, and high oil prices

On April 5, the "BTC OG Insider Whale" representative Garrett Jin published a lengthy article stating that oil is the core driving force behind the US-Iran war, with all other economic and financial variables affected by it. Garrett Jin believes the US-Iran war has evolved into a prolonged war of attrition. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for more than five weeks, oil prices may structurally increase, which could pass through to interest rates, exchange rates, the stock market, and the credit market. According to PolyBeats data, prediction market Polymarket puts the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire before the end of this month at 18%, before the end of May at 34%, and before the end of June at 46%.