Russian crude oil exports surge by nearly 9%, Trump’s tariff remarks spark market concerns, global supply chains face renewed uncertainties

⑴ Russia’s Black Sea Tuapse port’s April petroleum product export plan has risen to 794,000 tons, an 8.7% month-on-month increase from the March plan of 755,000 tons, with a significant increase in average daily exports. ⑵ Among specific categories, the export plan for fuel oil showed the most notable rise, surging 30.9% from March’s 210,000 tons to 266,000 tons; the diesel 10ppm export plan is 368,000 tons, a slight 4.2% increase from the previous figure. ⑶ Mixed diesel and vacuum gas oil are planned at 40,000 tons and 30,000 tons, growing 3.3% and 3.3% respectively month-on-month; naphtha is the only category to decline, with an April plan of 90,000 tons, down 15.5% from March’s 110,000 tons. ⑷ Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff-related comments continue to fuel global trade tensions and intensify energy market concerns over supply chain stability. Russia’s decision to significantly increase petroleum exports at this time is likely aimed at capturing market opportunities. ⑸ Traders noted that the nearly 30% jump in fuel oil exports reflects Russia’s bet on demand from Asia and emerging markets, while the modest growth in diesel exports suggests there are still logistical challenges in the European direction. Attention should be paid to how actual loading volumes materialize in the future.