Polymarket: Probability of "US-Iran ceasefire before May 15" drops to 37%, down 45% in 24 hours
Polymarket's "US-Iran ceasefire before May 15" probability has dropped to 37%, falling 45% in 24 hours. So far, the total trading volume for the "When will US-Iran ceasefire" event contract has surpassed $107 million. The rules for this event contract are: if the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a public announcement and mutual agreement to halt direct military actions) before the specified date (11:59 PM US Eastern Time), the market will resolve as "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve as "No". A "formal ceasefire agreement" requires both the US government and the Iranian government to publicly confirm that they have agreed to stop military hostilities against each other, or for the formal agreement to be confirmed by an overwhelming consensus in media reports.
US Vice President Vance recently reiterated that the deadline for Iran is 8 PM US Eastern Time Tuesday (8 AM Beijing Time Wednesday), and stated that Khark Island does not represent a strategic shift. According to two US officials, before Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched strikes on military targets on Khark Island earlier Tuesday (local time). One official said the US struck more than 50 targets on the island. Officials stated the strikes occurred during early Tuesday US Eastern Time and did not target oil facilities. Trump has set Tuesday night (US Eastern Time) as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise it will risk devastating attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Continue monitoring the prediction market; observe changes before pricing.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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