Which nations have exhausted their fiscal capacity?
Changing Perspectives on Fiscal Policy
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation remained persistently low, fostering the belief that central banks could maintain low interest rates indefinitely. This assumption led many governments to accumulate higher levels of debt, confident that interest costs would stay manageable. Modern Monetary Theory represents the most pronounced example of this mindset, but its influence has shaped fiscal strategies more broadly. As a result, budget deficits have expanded in numerous countries since the pandemic, despite its conclusion. The perceived freedom to spend collided with the surge in inflation and increased expenditure demands following COVID-19.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Once the Federal Reserve starts the rate hike cycle, is "three consecutive hikes" a reasonable expectation?
BMO expects consecutive rate hikes in October and December, with a total of three increases potentially wiping out all rate cut gains for 2025. Vanguard believes "three consecutive hikes" is a reasonable starting point, but the actual number could be as high as six. There are historical exceptions: in 1997, the Federal Reserve raised rates only once and took no further action for the following 18 months. Meanwhile, trillion-dollar debt financing by AI giants, private credit exposure in the insurance industry, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% are the most dangerous pressure points in this rate hike cycle.
Goldman Sachs Also Changes Its Tune: The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates Next Week!
Goldman Sachs has shifted from predicting a rate hold to betting on a 25 basis point hike next week, stating that this change is not due to particularly bad inflation data—the August CPI was not perfect, but it wasn’t alarming either. The real key is that hawkish comments from Waller have already shaped market expectations: "If the inflation data isn’t perfect, there will be a rate hike." If the Federal Reserve backs down now, its credibility will suffer a serious blow and long-term interest rates could react sharply and immediately.

Meteora’s $20M fee surge fuels 18% rally – But MET’s next leg faces THIS hurdle

