Institution: If the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly, the economic impact of the Middle East war will be limited

Golden Ten Data reported on April 8 that Bruno Lamoral, portfolio manager at European asset management company DPAM, stated in a report that if the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened soon, bringing oil prices gradually back down to around $80 per barrel, the impact of the Middle East war on the macroeconomy will be limited. He pointed out that the United States may return to a growth model that is disinflationary, while Europe would avoid a recession. At this stage, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are clearly in a wait-and-see mode. Given that this is a supply shock rather than demand-driven inflation, we believe that, in the face of inflation that cannot be directly controlled, monetary authorities will have little willingness to further tighten policy.