Polymarket: The probability of Israel taking military action against Iran's nuclear power plant by April 30 has risen to 96%, up 51% in 24 hours.

Polymarket's probability that "Israel will take military action against Iranian nuclear power plants by April 30" has risen to 96%, an increase of 51% in 24 hours.

The event contract rules state: If Israel carries out a military strike against any Iranian power plant before April 30, the market will resolve as "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve as "No." This includes but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and military action by Israeli ground forces. Cyberattacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions do not count toward resolving this market. Israeli air strikes, missile strikes, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or fail to hit their targets will not be considered for this market.

Senior Israeli officials have stated that Israel believes it is too early for a ceasefire and hopes military action against Iran can continue for at least another month.

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