Ceasefire Eases Supply Worries, Goldman Sachs Lowers Second-Quarter Oil Price Forecast but Warns of Continued Extreme Risk

BlockBeats News, April 9th: Following the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2026 second-quarter oil price expectations: Brent crude oil from $99 to $90 per barrel, WTI crude oil from $91 to $87 per barrel.

The bank stated that the ceasefire has reduced geopolitical risk premium, coupled with a gradual recovery in the Hormuz Strait throughput, which are the main reasons for the forecast downgrade. As a result, Brent oil fell about 11% earlier this week. However, Goldman Sachs maintains its second-half oil price forecast unchanged and emphasizes the continued high uncertainty on the supply side:

If Middle East supply disruptions persist and production losses worsen
In an extreme scenario, Brent crude oil could rise to $115 per barrel

In addition, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously lowered its European TTF natural gas price expectations to €50 per megawatt-hour, but warns that if LNG transport is disrupted, gas prices could still rebound to over €75. Overall, while the ceasefire has temporarily eased market tension, the energy market remains geopolitically driven in the medium to long term, with significant ongoing volatility risks.