CITIC Securities: This round of central bank gold purchasing is far from over

Golden Ten Data reported on April 13 that, according to a research report by CITIC Securities, the global trend of central bank gold purchases remains resilient structurally, but the market may be systematically overestimating its drivers and impact mechanisms. 1) In terms of purchasing methods, the proportion of non-standard channels and domestic storage continues to rise, reflecting the strengthened attribute of gold as a "sovereign safe asset"; 2) Regarding purchasing motivations, this round of gold accumulation has gone beyond conventional reserve management, but it should not be simply equated as a direct product of de-dollarization—the primary rationale for central banks holding gold is still crisis hedging and reserve diversification; 3) As for recent disruptions, short-term reductions by central banks such as Turkey and Russia are tactical responses to fiscal pressure, and the overall pattern of global net purchases has not changed; 4) Concerning price impact, central bank gold buying is a long-term force raising the central price of gold, but their buy-the-dip behavior means they more often act as stabilizers, while variables such as real interest rates are more crucial for gold prices; 5) In terms of duration, emerging market central banks’ gold reserves as a proportion lag significantly behind those of developed countries, indicating that this cycle of central bank gold buying is far from over. We are optimistic about medium- to long-term allocation opportunities, but in the short term suggest watching for signs of weakening correlation between gold and risk assets, and use this as a key window for buy-the-dip entry.