VanEck: The market is pricing in a more sustained oil price shock, and stocks may prove relatively resilient
- VanEck Associates Corp. stated that after Trump ordered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices soared, indicating that investors’ doubts about a US-Iran ceasefire have deepened, and they are increasingly pricing in a more lasting oil price shock.
- VanEck cross-asset strategist Anna Wu pointed out that the market is beginning to believe that the oil price shock is no longer a short-term disruption, but a medium- to long-term scenario—oil prices may “remain at higher levels for a longer period.”
- This oil price rebound is more like a technical rebound; previously, following the announcement of the ceasefire, oil prices once plummeted by 17% in a single day.
- Against this backdrop, as the market adapts to a new price range, equities could prove more resilient.
- This dynamic is similar to how investors previously responded to tariff risks: first there is a concentrated “repricing,” and then, after the worst-case scenario is absorbed, risk factors gradually fade into “background noise.”
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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