Analyst on Gold Prices | Is the Gold Price Rebound Over?

Independent Analyst

On the fundamentals, Federal Reserve officials will deliver a series of speeches this week, and the U.S. Beige Book on economic conditions will be released, giving investors more policy signals. At present, the market is shifting towards expectations of a more hawkish Fed policy. However, Bank of America maintains its forecast of two rate cuts in 2026, advising clients that the Fed will ultimately disregard supply-driven inflation and weak wage pressures, opting not to keep rates high for an extended period.

From a technical perspective, the market is fluctuating in a narrow range, with several key moving averages converging, indicating the short-term direction is still unclear and new catalysts are needed for gold prices to break out of the current range. The key level for the week is $4,736/oz. Price action is currently below this level, suggesting bears have a slight advantage, though not a strong one. The battle for this watershed level should be closely watched.

Independent Analyst

U.S. labor force participation has fallen to a five-year low, mainly due to the Trump administration's stricter immigration policies and tighter labor supply.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted in a report that in a scenario of surging wartime defense spending, public debt could rise by about 14 percentage points (as a share of GDP), while social spending would meaningfully decline. In light of Middle East conflicts, the IMF is prepared to lower its global economic growth forecast.

According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt is set to reach a record $348 trillion by 2025. Although some geopolitical tensions are easing, the situation remains uneasy. Negotiations in Pakistan broke down, further increasing market uncertainty. Amid such turmoil, international gold has rebounded about 15% from recent lows and may continue to rise after a strong bottoming-out phase.

International gold faces resistance at $4,860/oz, $4,960/oz, and $5,050/oz, while support levels are at $4,538/oz, $4,448/oz, and $4,270/oz. With geopolitical tensions remaining high this week, a further consolidation and rebound in international gold is highly probable.

Researcher, Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center

Looking ahead, Middle East tensions could again escalate into chaos this week, with a flurry of remarks from Fed officials, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, and key U.S. economic data all likely to stir significant volatility in the gold market. News related to U.S.-Iran conflict will continue to impact gold prices in the near term. Once resolved, the focus will return to U.S. inflation and interest rate expectations.

Certified Senior Gold Investment Analyst

From a news perspective, the U.S. and Iran reached a brief ceasefire agreement last week, which temporarily eased worries over escalating Middle East tensions and gave investors a glimmer of hope for peace. However, the situation quickly deteriorated as talks in Pakistan broke down, prompting a swift and forceful U.S. response to order the Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. As a vital corridor for global oil transportation, the U.S. blockade will undoubtedly intensify tensions in the Middle East, boosting concerns about geopolitical risks in the market.

Editor | Jiao Yang   Layout | Jiao Yang   Visual | Zhang Zongwei