Polymarket launches a new market: "When will Powell resign as Federal Reserve Chairman?" Probability for June 6-12 is currently at 20%.

Polymarket has launched a new market: "When will Powell step down as Federal Reserve Chair?" Currently, the highest probability is June 6 to 12, at 20%; followed by May 30 to June 5, at 18%.

The rules for this event contract are as follows: The market will be settled based on the specific date range when Powell steps down as Federal Reserve Chair. "Resignation" means Powell is no longer actually serving as the Federal Reserve Chair. An announcement of his resignation or dismissal alone does not fulfill the condition. The scheduled end of Powell's term alone also does not fulfill the condition. If Powell continues as acting chair (for example, until his successor is confirmed), he will not be considered to have vacated the position. This market is limited to the period during which Powell serves as Federal Reserve Chair. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board will not affect the settlement of this market. All dates are based on U.S. Eastern Time.

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