CICC: Brent oil prices may gradually fall to around $80 in the second and third quarters

Golden Ten Data, April 20 – According to a research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC), as the situation in Iran enters its seventh week, developments have taken a further turn. Although the first round of negotiations “collapsed,” both the US and Iran “announced” the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, which has still largely boosted market optimism, despite subsequent fluctuations in the situation. This basically aligns with our baseline assumption: although there may still be short-term volatility, an eventual loss of control in the midterm is not the baseline scenario, especially as Trump needs to consider the midterm elections and comprehensive, uncontrollable escalation does not serve the interests of either side. Under such circumstances, Brent oil prices are expected to gradually fall back to around $80 in the second and third quarters, and the Federal Reserve can still cut interest rates.