Analyst View on Gold Price | Repeated Middle East Tensions and New Fed Concerns

Independent Analyst

On the fundamentals side, the situation in the Middle East continues to dominate international gold prices, and the traditional safe-haven logic is temporarily invalid. This week, investors should pay attention to changing geopolitical conditions after the expiration of the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement on April 22, as well as statements from Federal Reserve officials and changes in rate cut expectations.

If international gold prices break out upward from the upper end of the range, watch for resistance around $4,933/ounce. If this level is effectively breached, resistance will move to around $5,034/ounce; if it breaks down below the lower edge, watch for support around $4,688/ounce, and if this level is lost, support moves to approximately $4,543/ounce.

Independent Analyst

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book points out that the surge in energy prices and uncertainties from Middle East tensions have become a main constraint on corporate decision-making and economic activity. While there is some mild recovery in parts of the economy, weakening consumer resilience, spreading cost pressures, and a general wait-and-see attitude among companies signal that the US economy is still facing major challenges for the foreseeable future.

Researcher, Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center

Looking to this week, the Middle East situation remains a major variable, and international gold prices may reach a key moment.

The hearing for Fed nominee Kevin Walsh, nominated by Trump to be the next Fed chair, is tentatively scheduled for this week, but some senators say they will block the hearing until related investigation issues are resolved. This could throw the Fed leadership transition into chaos. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair ends on May 15; he previously stated that if a successor is not confirmed, he will stay on according to law and may continue as a board member until 2028.

Trump’s stance is equally tough, stating that the investigation into the Fed headquarters renovation must proceed. If Powell does not resign after his term as chair ends, Trump will fire him. The market expects Walsh to issue dovish monetary policy signals, which would be bullish for international gold prices since lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.

However, not all officials agree with Walsh. Recently, several senior Fed officials have spoken out to restrain any sweeping reforms Walsh might push forward if he takes office. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supports reviewing liquidity regulation rules—the key to banks’ high reserve requirements—but warns against changing capital adequacy requirements. She argues the Fed’s balance sheet size depends on both operational needs and post-crisis regulatory rules. New York Fed President John Williams emphasizes that the regulatory framework should focus on financial safety and soundness, not just asset/liability shrinkage needs.

Economists are increasingly cautious about US growth prospects. Participants in the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey warn the economic outlook has changed “rapidly and significantly.”

Short-term resistance for international silver is $79~83/ounce, with key pressure at $86~90/ounce. Support is at $77~74/ounce, with key support at $71~69/ounce.

Certified Senior Gold Investment Analyst

From a technical perspective, gold may still be in an uptrend in the short term, but if a right shoulder forms, it could trigger downside risk.

Zhaojin Refining

The US and Iran still intend to continue negotiations and seek a temporary agreement. On the Federal Reserve side, Trump threatens to fire Powell while Powell insists on staying, escalating direct conflicts and increasing uncertainty about the Fed's policy path. The market’s bull-bear contest is intensifying.

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