ECB Insight: Why June Could Yet Become the New April

We return from the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington yet more convinced that treating a June hike as the inevitable byproduct of an April hold understates the risk that June, too, will prove too early. That is not to say that the ECB cannot hike on June 11 if the fighting in the Middle East is still ongoing then—or even if it is not. A hike is of course realistic; we are merely saying that June has growing potential to become "the new April"—in other words, a month that initially appeared destined to bring a hike, only to wind up, with the passage of time, being deemed too early for a move. We argued similarly ... (full story)