Gold Trading Alert: Gold Price Reverses Sharply! Tension Escalates Between the US and Iran, But the Dollar Suddenly Weakens—Is It Time to Buy the Dip?

　　

　　At a time when global financial markets are on edge, gold, as the most classic safe-haven asset, has never shown such emotionally-charged price fluctuations. On Monday (April 19),

staged a dramatic "V-shaped" reversal—plunging during the session to a one-week low, then mounting a strong rebound. Behind this, it is not just a dance of numbers, but a convergence of geopolitical storms, sharp shifts in the dollar’s trajectory, and severe volatility in global energy markets. In early Asian trading on Tuesday (April 20),

　　Gold price stages a "V" reversal; bulls and bears in fierce combat

　　

prices briefly fell to $4,737.04/ounce during trading—the lowest since April 13—a significant decline. However, market sentiment did not allow bears to revel for long, as the gold price gradually recouped losses and ultimately closed at $4,820.63, narrowing the daily drop to about 0.28%. Meanwhile, the US futures gold market exhibited a similarly cautious atmosphere, with June gold futures

　　Such a pattern of first suppression and then recovery clearly sketches out traders' current inner turmoil and contradictions. On one hand, some forces are pushing gold down; on the other, the foundations supporting gold remain intact, and bulls are ever-ready for a counterattack.

　　The dollar’s “up then down” move becomes a direct driver of gold’s volatility

　　

takes center stage. Earlier on Monday,

　　US-Iran situation suddenly escalates; ceasefire agreement on the brink

　　If dollar fluctuations were the surface trigger, then the renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East is the fire burning behind gold price volatility. Over the past weekend, the fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran appeared to be at the brink of collapse. The trigger was a US seizure of an Iranian container ship, with Iran vowing to retaliate. This move quickly dampened global market expectations for Middle East peace.

　　An Iranian senior official said Monday that Iran was "actively considering" participating in US peace talks in Pakistan. Compared to Tehran’s previous hardline stance of refusing participation and vowing retaliation, this is a softer signal—but the preconditions remain tough.

　　Iran’s Foreign Minister Aragchi made it clear that the US’s "continued violations of the ceasefire agreement" are the main obstacles to diplomatic progress. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also reiterated three basic positions on the same day, including the demand for "war reparations", stressing not to give up the country's legitimate rights. Speaker of Iran’s parliament, Ghalibaf, took a tough stance at 1 a.m. on the 21st: "Iran does not accept negotiations under threat," and accused the US of trying to turn the negotiating table into a "surrender table".

　　This conflict, now in its eighth week, has caused thousands of deaths and seriously disrupted the global economy, especially the energy market. The two-week ceasefire is about to expire this week, while Vice President Vance is reported to still be in the US, not departing for Pakistan as expected—adding further uncertainty to the negotiation outlook. While President Trump expressed optimism about a new nuclear deal on social media, Iran remains skeptical, seeing the US’s posture of threats and willingness to negotiate as contradictory.

　　Oil prices soar 5%, Hormuz Strait the center of the standoff

　　The most direct and acute spillover of US-Iran tension is seen in global energy markets. Amid fears that the ceasefire will break, and actual shipping delays in the Hormuz Strait, international oil prices soared about 5% on Monday. US crude futures closed up 6.87% at $89.61/barrel;

rose 5.64%, closing at $95.48/barrel.

　　The passage status of the Hormuz Strait, a key global energy chokepoint, has become a "thermometer" measuring the intensity of the US-Iran conflict. Shipping data shows transit through the strait has almost ground to a halt, with only three ships passing through in 12 hours. Iran once lifted the blockade on the strait, then re-imposed it. The US has maintained blockades on Iranian ports, and in this incident took direct military action by boarding and detaining a cargo ship. Videos released by US Central Command show Marines descending by rope from helicopters onto the Iranian ship—this direct confrontation sharply heightened worries about escalation in the market.

　　Complex market reactions: stocks under pressure, bond market calm, risk aversion not out of control

　　

and Nasdaq

　　Somewhat surprisingly, the US Treasury market remained quite calm. Bond market investors largely downplayed the weekend's Middle East turmoil; Treasuries were almost unchanged Monday on subdued volume. The 10-year yield rose slightly to 4.25%, the 30-year remained flat. This suggests many investors are in wait-and-see mode, believing any escalation in the region could be contained, or preferring to wait for more clarity around peace talks. As one strategist said, "I think we can get through this period, though it may be a bit bumpy."

　　Gold outlook

　　Overall, the current gold market is at a critical crossroads. Bears have a clear logic: rising US bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Market analysts from City Index and FOREX note that an escalation in the Middle East could cause oil prices to spike, thus boosting the dollar and bond yields, resulting in a slight downside bias for gold prices. Technically, the next target for gold futures bulls is to close above the strong resistance at $5,000, while bears hope to establish a top at current levels.

　　Yet the support for bulls is not to be underestimated. The real presence of geopolitical risk, and the threat that the ceasefire could collapse at any time, firmly underpin safe-haven demand for gold. The tough statements of Iran's Supreme Leader and Parliament Speaker, as well as continued US economic and military pressure, mean that any miscalculation could reignite conflict. In addition, expectations around Federal Reserve policy are shifting. As inflation worries are aggravated by rising oil, the fed funds futures market now expects only 14 basis points of cuts this year—far below the 55bp expected before the conflict—but the simple direction of rate cuts is itself long-term bullish for gold.

　　

　　

Editor: Zhu Henan