CITIC Futures: Silver is expected to follow gold in a short-term strong consolidation with higher volatility than gold; attention should be paid to the progress of US-Iran negotiations and the resumption of navigation in the strait.

Golden Ten Data reported on April 21 that renewed blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tensions between the US and Iran have driven up the US Dollar Index and stoked inflation concerns. Due to its industrial attributes, silver is more sensitive to global growth and risk appetite, and its price volatility is often greater than that of gold. At present, the “stagnation” aspect of the US economy has yet to be confirmed. With the latest escalation in US-Iran geopolitical tensions, oil prices have risen during the day, making it difficult for short-term interest rate cut expectations to heat up quickly; more economic data will be needed for direction. Additionally, the current spot-driven factors for silver remain weak. Although 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month London silver leasing rates have ticked up slightly, they continue to hover at low levels. Short-term industrial demand prospects for silver are also subdued. From April onwards, the cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates may slow down the previous rush to export silver in the photovoltaic sector.