Russia's crude oil exports to India surged to 2 million barrels in April, as the US unexpectedly extended a waiver, triggering a surge of Ural crude eastbound.
- According to institutions citing traders and shipping data disclosed on Tuesday, thanks to the extension of the latest US sanctions waiver on Russia, Russia’s crude oil exports to India in April and May are expected to remain near record highs. In late April, weekly arrivals could reach as much as 2.1 million barrels per day.
- In March, India’s imports of Russian crude soared to a record high of 2.25 million barrels per day, nearly double the February level, pushing the share of Russian oil in India’s import structure to 50%. India has become the world’s largest buyer of Russia’s flagship Urals crude outside China.
- Three sources involved in the trade revealed that, despite a brief supply disruption at Russian ports due to Ukrainian drone attacks at the end of March, average Russian oil shipments to India in April are set to remain firmly above 2 million barrels per day, with May likely to sustain or even exceed this strength.
- The market logic is that Washington, aiming to stabilize oil prices amid energy market upheaval caused by its own conflicts with Iran, is compelled to keep the door open for third-party Russian oil purchases. Indian refiners had already secured most May deliveries through non-sanctioned entities and ships before the waiver was announced, and paid a premium roughly in line with April levels.
- Meanwhile, the Indian Shipping Directorate recently expanded the list of Russian institutions authorized to provide maritime insurance from eight to eleven, further easing logistical bottlenecks from a technical standpoint. This trend indicates that, against a backdrop of elevated risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian buyers are voting with their feet to seek diversified and discounted alternative supplies, with Urals crude capitalizing on geopolitical fractures to make deep inroads into the traditional Middle Eastern market share.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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