CITIC Securities: Sodium-ion batteries are expected to reach cost parity and large-scale production by 2027, and rising lithium carbonate prices are accelerating this process

We expect leading sodium battery manufacturers to achieve price parity with lithium batteries by the end of 2026, and that sodium batteries will enter an era of scaled parity deployment in 2027. Large-scale energy storage will be the main battlefield for the commercialization of sodium batteries, with overseas owners willing to pay a safety premium, leading to overseas energy storage stations scaling up first. In the medium term, sodium batteries are expected to gain a foothold in the power sector due to advantages such as low-temperature performance and enhanced safety. We estimate that market demand for sodium batteries could reach 500 GWh by 2030. It is important to seize the opportunity for the industrialization and scaling of sodium batteries, with priority given to areas such as battery production and aluminum foil segments.