CITIC Futures: Gold fluctuates in the short term, lacking a strong trend-driven upside

First, according to the official website of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, on April 21, during a hearing of the Committee, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Walsh stated that if appointed and in charge of the Federal Reserve, he would make independent monetary policy decisions and would not be influenced by any suggestions or pressure from Trump. He also emphasized that low inflation is the Federal Reserve’s shield. Second, the U.S. retail sales monthly rate for March was 1.7%, exceeding the expected 1.4% and the previous value of 0.7%; core retail monthly rate was 1.9%, surpassing the expected 1.4% and the previous value of 0.7%. Supported by strong retail data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have further converged. Third, the temporary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire on April 22, Eastern Time. Trump publicly stated that if both parties fail to reach an agreement before the ceasefire expires, it is “extremely unlikely” that the ceasefire will be extended. On the Iranian side, officials stated they refuse to participate in a second round of negotiations with the U.S.; the uncertain outlook for negotiations has led to cautious gold buying sentiment, with funds waiting on the sidelines for a clearer situation.