US: Revenue resilience after IEEPA ruling – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered economists Dan Pan and Steve Englander assess the impact of the United States (US) Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling on US tariff revenue. They note that tariff income has fallen but remains well above pre-Liberation Day levels. The report highlights temporary support from Section 122 tariffs and potential further declines as remedies expire and reimbursements accelerate.

Tariff income holds but faces risks

"US tariff revenue declined after the US Supreme Court disallowed IEEPA tariffs, but not by as much as some feared. In the first two months after the ruling, we expect tariff revenue to reach USD 25bn in March and April each."

"Current tariff revenue is still c.3.4x pre-Liberation Day levels, and below the end-2025 pace, when tariffs were at full swing and revenues were over 4x 2024 levels."

"At the current run-rate, the revenue hit from the IEEPA ruling could total USD 60bn annualised. The drop is meaningful but much smaller than widely expected, given that IEEPA tariffs account for over half of US tariff revenue."

"If tariff revenue remains at this level with the refund process stretched out, the fiscal damage may be contained; however, it could drop further in the coming months."

"The 10% Section 122 blanket tariff imposed after the ruling helped to offset the revenue shortfall, but there is no perfect substitute after the 150-day limit runs out on 24 July 2026."