Research shows that Polymarket's accuracy mainly comes from 3% of traders

Research analyzing all Polymarket trades from 2023 to 2025 found that about 3% of traders contributed the majority of price discovery, challenging the view that prediction markets rely on "the wisdom of the crowd." By simulating each trader's bets 10,000 times, the study found that only a few top winners outperformed random chance, while many apparent winners saw their performance drop when tested on other events. Only 12% of high-profit winners met the benchmark, and about 60% of "lucky winners" became losers in independent sample tests.