Goldman Sachs sharply raises oil price forecast as the global oil market shifts from surplus to significant deficit

1. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in Q4 2026 to $90 per barrel, and its forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices to $83 per barrel, mainly due to a decline in Middle Eastern oil production. Goldman Sachs estimates that Middle Eastern oil production will decrease by 14.5 million barrels per day, resulting in global oil inventories falling at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April.2. The global oil market will shift from a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to a huge deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day in Q2 2026. Global oil demand in the second quarter will decline by 1.7 million barrels per day, and the annual demand in 2026 will decrease by 100 thousand barrels per day. This reflects that supply-side disruptions far exceed the contraction on the demand side.