Mali's sudden changes combined with a shipping gap in Zimbabwe intensify expectations of a tightened lithium supply in May

```htmlGolden Ten Data Futures reported on April 27 that the main lithium carbonate contract rose 4.00% during the day and is currently priced at 184,740 yuan/ton. According to a research report from Chuangyuan Futures on April 27, an armed attack broke out over the weekend in Mali. Currently, Mali's active lithium mines are Goulamina and Bougouni, and the lithium ore is transported back home for lithium salt production. The mining sites are a certain distance from the attack area, so in theory, lithium ore production is not affected, but transportation may be impacted. Further attention should be paid to whether the scope of the conflict expands and its duration. Fundamentally, inventory accumulation has dominated in April, with weekly lithium carbonate output at 25,947 tons, up 234 tons week-on-week, and inventory at 103,470 tons, up 656 tons week-on-week. However, arrivals of Zimbabwean lithium concentrate have decreased, and supply growth is slowing at the margin. Demand remains robust, with preliminary battery sector production for May up 6-8% month-on-month. As mid- and downstream capacity is released, inventories are likely to shift from accumulation to depletion in May. The current core issue is that the export quota for Zimbabwean lithium concentrate has been determined, but procedures are still ongoing; shipments are expected to resume in late May, with a relatively long shipment gap, further strengthening expectations of tight supply in May. Last week, concentrate prices remained firm and profits from processing purchased ore narrowed, indirectly reflecting tight supply. It is expected there will be strong volatility before the May Day holiday, and attention after the holiday should focus on whether expectations of ore shortages materialize.```