Polymarket Market Report: Among the top 10 most volatile markets out of over 20,000, cryptocurrency events account for 40%

According to Odaily, the third-party prediction market data platform Polysights posted on X, stating that it analyzed over 20 thousand Polymarket markets in the past 6 months and provided volatility rankings. The main findings are as follows:

- Cryptocurrency-related markets account for four of the top ten positions, characterized by a high degree of information asymmetry, with few able to accurately predict outcomes.

- Deadline anxiety emerges: questions involving "Will X happen before [date]" tend to be more volatile than "Who will win" type questions.

- Market results tend to be "Yes"—in markets valued above 1 million USD, the probability of a "Yes" outcome is 50%, while overall it is only 27%; when the market experiences sharp volatility, the final result is more often "Yes".

- Medium-sized markets (1 million to 7 million USD) are characterized as a chaotic range; in markets above 10 million USD, large capital involvement brings smoother price movements.