Everbright Futures 0427 Gold Commentary: Geopolitical and Policy Factors Exert Dual Pressure Before the Holiday, Gold Price Continues to Fluctuate
Overall, COMEX gold is seeing narrow fluctuations and, as of writing, is relatively stable, with the market sentiment turning more cautious.
In terms of geopolitics, the standoff between the US and Iran continues. After the ceasefire agreement expired on April 22, the outlook for further negotiations has not improved. The US has announced it will push for a second round of talks while at the same time continuing to issue signals of military threats. On the other hand, Iran has refused to participate in the new round of consultations and has further tightened control over the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Israel has stated that its military action against Iran is "not over yet." All in all, the Middle East situation remains in a state of confrontation, but the market's marginal reaction to geopolitical risks has weakened.
On the policy side, the Federal Reserve will hold its April FOMC meeting this week, and the market generally expects rates to remain unchanged. According to CME FedWatch data, expectations for rate cuts within this year have already been compressed to less than one. Compared to the decision itself, the market pays more attention to statements about inflation and the policy path in the post-meeting communiqué, which will provide direction for gold in the short term.
In summary, gold prices face dual pressures from the geopolitical stalemate and policy tightening expectations before the holiday, limiting short-term upward potential. However, geopolitical issues themselves and the potential risk of stagflation still give gold medium- to long-term allocation value. With the domestic May Day holiday approaching, investors are advised to control their positions, keep a light position during the break, and wait for a clearer direction after the holiday to enter the market.
Source: Everbright Futures Research Institute
Author: Yao Tao
Practicing Qualification: F3082336
Trading Consulting Qualification: Z0018553
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Anthropic’s performance is “good but not good enough”: under “adjusted profitability,” revenue growth sharply brakes!
Anthropic's third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion, an increase of nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter, and achieved "adjusted profitability"—but the market remains unconvinced. The main concern lies in monthly growth slowing sharply from 33% to single digits, leaving a gap of several billion dollars short of the year-end $100 billion target. Token prices have hit historic lows, with the disconnect between volume and price becoming increasingly prominent. Whether this "good but not good enough" performance can support a $2 trillion IPO valuation remains uncertain.
CoreWeave Drops 15%, AI Computing Power Business Faces Financing Test
CoreWeave bonds have fallen below 80% of face value, with yields surpassing 15% and a default probability exceeding 50% within five years. The company’s CEO attempted to reassure the market by citing an order backlog of over $100 billion, but analysts pointed out that orders do not equate to cash: “If borrowing costs are 9% but project returns are only 5%, the larger the scale, the greater the value destruction.” AI infrastructure-related stocks such as Oracle have also seen significant declines, with concerns spreading across the entire high-yield bond market. Musk sighed: "Oh dear!"
XRP, Chainlink and Zcash hover at key support levels as volume dries up
Berkshire increases investment by $330 million, this "APP Renovation Factory" sees its stock price soar over 40% in a single day
Berkshire Hathaway has made an additional $330 million investment in Bending Spoons, increasing its stake to 4%. This news sent Bending Spoons’ stock soaring over 41% in a single day. The transaction marks the latest major capital deployment under new CEO Greg Abel. Bending Spoons specializes in acquiring "outdated apps" and uses AI to restructure cost structures and business models to generate cash flow.
Crypto prices
More
