Musk is at a disadvantage in the $180 billion lawsuit against OpenAI

Legal experts and prediction markets widely believe that Musk has little chance of winning as he enters the Oakland federal court. Since March, the average probability of his success on the Kalshi platform has been around 40%, much lower than the 57% Musk boasted about in January when he posted “can’t wait for the trial.” Jeff Ward, clinical professor of law at Duke University and director of the Duke Center on Law & Tech, said of Musk’s chances: “It’s possible to win, but savvy investors aren’t betting on him.” The remedies Musk seeks include: requiring OpenAI’s for-profit subsidiary to pay its non-profit parent company damages that could exceed $180 billion; removing OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman from their leadership positions; and revoking OpenAI’s recent shift toward a more traditional governance structure. Even if only one of these proposed changes is realized, it would severely disrupt OpenAI’s listing process. The company could go public as early as the end of this year.