CryptoQuant analyst: The model shows that this Bitcoin cycle will only enter a mid- to long-term bottoming phase if BTC falls to $59,000.

According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X, stating that the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, calibrated based on Bitcoin's current circulating supply, indicates that Bitcoin only truly enters a medium- to long-term bottoming phase if it falls to the critical $59,000 range. The bottom formation is not a short-term process and will not be completed within one to two weeks; under the base case scenario, it is expected to take about six months.

Axel Adler Jr emphasized that although Bitcoin has risen recently, the real driving force behind the market stabilizing is not an improvement in sentiment or a local rebound, but the return of long-term genuine demand. In other words, a true bottom can only be established when the market resumes pricing in future value and spot buying steadily recovers.