Bitunix Analyst: High Interest Rates and Geopolitical Risks Coexist, Market Enters "Slowing Demand but Unwavering Liquidity" Phase

BlockBeats News, May 6 — The global market is still simultaneously digesting three main themes: economic slowdown, energy risks, and prolonged high interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for the third consecutive time, reflecting its ongoing vigilance against sticky inflation. Even though signs of cooling demand have appeared globally, uncertainties in energy and supply chains are still forcing policymakers to maintain a relatively tight stance.

The latest data from the United States is beginning to show a gradual economic slowdown: service sector growth is cooling, and the trade deficit in March stood at 60.3 billion US dollars. Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve continue to lean more toward a “delay in rate cuts” rather than renewed rate hikes. This indicates that the real problem the market faces now is not an imminent recession, but the possibility of high interest rates persisting for a longer period.

On the geopolitical front, the United States announced that its offensive military action against Iran has “ended.” Trump even declared a pause to the “Freedom Plan,” in an attempt to reduce the risk of further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran still emphasized that the two sides remain in a state of war, and the UAE continues to issue missile threat alerts. This means the risks to the energy supply chain and shipping have not truly been eliminated.

In the crypto market, BTC’s recent high once again approached 82,000 US dollars, but the structure of the derivatives market has not strengthened in tandem—the funding rate remains negative. This suggests that although the price stays high, the overall leverage sentiment in the market remains cautious. Short-term capital continues to be prudent about chasing prices, also reflecting that market activity is currently still more liquidity-driven rather than a full return of risk appetite.