IMF lowers economic growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa

The report states that, due to the impact of conflict in the Middle East, the economic growth rate for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2026 is expected to be 4.3%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than previously forecast. The report indicates that the Middle East conflict casts a shadow over the economic prospects of Sub-Saharan Africa. Prices for oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, along with transportation costs, have risen sharply. The conflict has disrupted trade between Sub-Saharan African countries and Gulf states, affected tourism, and may impact remittance income for some nations. The report forecasts a 4.3% economic growth rate for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2026, noting significant differences among countries within the region. Oil-importing and resource-poor nations will face worsening trade imbalances and rising living costs, while oil exporters may benefit from increased export revenues but also face risks such as market volatility. The report notes that, amid global uncertainty and regional macroeconomic vulnerabilities, downside risks to the Sub-Saharan African economy are significant. If the conflict continues for an extended period, it will further drive up prices for oil, fertilizers, and food, and may trigger risk aversion, leading to sharply higher borrowing costs.